Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
